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Alvin’s Analysis — September 2018

The second half of the 2018 southern hemisphere season is showing great potential with a healthy supply and opportunity for growth in both established and emerging markets.

The volume forecasts for southern hemisphere (SH) 2018 continue to be strong, with Star Fruits most recent newsletter forecasting Chile supply at almost 90,000MT for the full season. This additional volume is opportunity for the emerging Pink Lady Development (PLD) markets to take back distribution lost during the past two affected seasons, and start to grow to their real potential. Rapid growth in new and emerging markets is critical to the future prosperity of the Pink Lady® brand.

With the majority of shipments reported up to August, total exports to PLD countries are tracking well compared to 2017 with approximately 2,720MT reported to date compared to 3,089MT the same time last year. This represents 88 per cent of 2017 volume with a few months of the southern hemisphere season still to go.

Comparing with the same period in 2017:

  • Regions down on last year: Southeast Asia (New Zealand (NZ) into Thailand, and South Africa into Malaysia).
  • Regions growing vs last year: Middle East (NZ into Qatar, NZ into the United Arab Emirates and Chile into Saudi Arabia).
From lt: Peter Bevan, Alvin Kee and Sophie Griffith at the New Zealand Pink Lady Growers Association.

Specifically, the Middle East has increased volumes by over 400MT v same time last SH season. A result of favourable existing trading relationships, and additional effort from NZ to grow in this market. The Middle East has made a great turnaround from the last two seasons and we expect this to continue with a positive forecast from LucaZara and major sampling and tasting activities in all modern retailers. For more information contact LucaZara CEO David O’Brien on do@lucazara.com.

Supply is critical to new and emerging markets and PLD remains committed to supporting exporters diversify their supply base. Supply issues have impacted the last two seasons, so this year will be a more accurate indicator of what is possible in emerging markets when quality product is regularly available.

Based on the European market supply position, PLD are predicting a big finish to southern hemisphere 2018 in the emerging markets. This has started with increased interest shown by exporters in PLD territories during discussions at Asia Fruit Logistica, including interest in new markets, Taiwan and India. As the PLD shipment numbers indicate, there is huge scope for a strong second half.

Asia has been a little slower out of the blocks compared to the Middle East, even with fruit available. We need to ensure we take advantage of a strong supply year.

Southeast Asia Brand Development Manager, Ryan Au will be implementing a strong promotional program for the second half of SH 2018, and the first half of northern hemisphere 2018-2019. Our retail partners are looking to us to provide 52-week promotional programs to help them grow distribution, and so we are investing heavily in many markets. Bonus fruit promotions, tastings and samplings; store display promotions; digital media support; and point of sale opportunities will all be available for proactive exporters to Asia. PLD Asia will also be aligning with the Pink Lady® Food Photographer of the Year Award and promoting in Tesco stores across Thailand from October to February. For more information contact Ryan on ryan.au@pinkladyapples.com to align your programs and get involved.

Alvin Kee

About the Author:

Financial Planning & Analysis Manager, Apple and Pear Australia Limited

akee@apal.org.au